中印投資 | 印度投資風險研究之中印經貿關係

To take a look on economic and social development, India has been making considerably great progress in recent years. Since economic liberalization policies in 1991, India’s economy achieved rapid growth for 20 years, the growth rate of which once exceed 9%, so that India has become a lead in newly thriving economy. According to IMF’s number, the GDP of India in 2014 has ranked 9th with total amount of 204.9 million dollars. Since Modi came into the office, India has brought vitality to its economic growth by accelerating the pace of economic reforms, constructing infrastructure, developing on manufacture, investing smart city construction plan and loosing restrains on foreign investment.Yet the other side of the coin is the serious imbalance of economic and social development. The severe polarization of wealth distribution has made India the country with the largest number of the poor. In the report of China Economic Weekly of 2010, India’s population of poverty made up 33% of the whole world’s poverty population. Furthermore, the nation’s illiteracy rate was 24%, child malnutrition rate over 40% and beyond 70% of the national population live in rural regions.

从产业结构及吸引外资情况来看，印度取得了较为积极的进展。在产业布局上，农业是印度国民经济发展的基础产业。印度是传统的农业大国，耕地面积约1.6亿公顷，居亚洲之首。印度农业以种植业为主，主要农作物有大米、小麦、玉米、高粱、油籽等。经过自独立以来一系列改革，印度农业生产发展迅速，基本实现了粮食自给。印度制造业总体发展滞后，主要以采矿、制药、汽车加工、化工、石油等产业为主。近年来，印度的电子制造、航空工业等新兴领域异军突起，发展迅速。服务业是印度经济发展最大的亮点，印度目前已成为全球电脑软件、金融等服务业的重要出口国，班加罗尔被誉为“亚洲的硅谷”。除了软件领域的成功，旅游业也是印度政府大力支持的产业，尤其以泰姬陵为主的一批历史文化景点每年都吸引了大量的国外游客。

From the present situation of industrial structure and attraction for foreign investment, India moves forward positively. Agriculture is the basic industry of national economic development. As a traditional agriculture country, India owns 160 million acres of plow, ranking 1st in Asia. Crop production has been the major part of its agriculture, with rice, wheat, corn, sorghum, and oilseed. With series of reforms ever since independence, India has met its own food sufficiency in rapid development. Manufacture industry mainly lags behind, with major production of mining, pharmacy, automobile manufacture, chemical engineering and petroleum.However, in recent times, newly thriving fields like electronic manufacture and aviation industry suddenly spring.Service industry has become the diamond in India’s economic development. Now, India has been famous for export of service such as computer software and finance, and Bangalore earned the reputation as Asian Silicon Valley. Except for software industry, tourism is also a large investment of Indian government, especially on tourists overseas at historic and cultural scenic spots like TajMahal.

从吸引外资情况看，印度是新兴经济体中具有竞争力的国家之一。根据印度商工部工业政策和促进总局（DIPP）的统计，2000年至2014年9月，印度累计利用外资3450.73亿美元。莫迪政府通过改革进一步优化外国投资环境，助推印度经济发展。2014年8月，印度商工部发布公告，将外国直接投资在铁路基础设施领域的投资上限提高至100%，允许外资参与印度城郊公私合作模式的铁路走廊建设、高速铁路系统、铁路电气化、信号系统等项目。当然，我们也应该看到，印度在引进外资方面仍存在诸多障碍，如行政效率低下、官僚审批程序复杂、基础设施建设落后、民众市场意识不够健全等。此外，印度投资环境的区域差异明显，以新德里为首的西北地区、孟买为主的西部地区、加尔各答为主的东北部以及班加罗尔为主的南部地区投资环境相对较好。

On the other hand, when it comes to attraction for foreign investment, India is definitely one of the most competitive newly thriving economies.According to numbers of Ministry of Commerce and Industry and DIPP, from 2000 to September 2014, India has accumulatively attracted 345.073 billion dollars. Modi government, through reforms, further advanced investing environment to support national economic development. In August 2014, Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry released an announcement that the upper limit of investment on railway infrastructure construction was raised to 100%, and give permission to join India’s suburban public-private partnership model for projects like railway corridor construction, high-speed railway construction, railway electrification and signal system. Of course, obstacles exist during attracting investment overseas, like low administrative efficiency, difficulty of bureaucratic approval system, infrastructure lagging and broken market awareness of the public.Moreover, regional differences are obvious in India’s investment distribution, better environment for investment including New Deli on behalf of the northwest, Bombay of the west, and Calcutta of the northeast and Bangalore of the south.

近年来，中印两国的经贸关系发展迅速。中国已成为印度最大的贸易伙伴、最大的进口来源和第三大出口市场。2013年，印度与中国双边货物贸易额为659.5亿美元。其中，印度对中国出口145.6亿美元，占印度出口总额的4.7%，印度自中国进口513.9亿美元，占印度进口总额的11%。此外，中印同为金砖国家、二十国集团和区域全面经济伙伴关系协定（RCEP）的成员，两国在改善国际经济环境、提升发展中国家话语权和区域经济合作中展开了积极合作。但是，我们也应看到中印之间的贸易起步较晚，总量偏低，且结构失衡。印度出口中国的是原料、初级产品和半成品，而中国对印度出口则主要为机械制造和机电产品，这加剧了印度国内的经济民族主义情绪。印度的贸易保护行为、外资审查制度、劳动力市场不成熟等因素也为中印经贸合作设置了障碍。不过，从总体上看，中印经贸关系互补性强、发展潜力巨大，特别是在基础设施建设、软件服务外包方面的合作大有可为。

Recently, Sino-India economic and commercial partnership grows rapidly. China has become the largest commercial partner, source of import and the 3rd largest export market to India now. The Sino-India bilateral trade in goods amounted 65.95 billion dollars in 2013. Export from India to China amounted 14.56 billion dollars that took up of 4.7% of total export, and import from China to India amounted 51.39 billion dollars that made up 11% of the total import.For more, China and India both belong to BRICS, G20, and RCEP, due to which both countries have cooperated in improving international economy, developing countries’ discourse power and regional economic cooperation. Yet it is obvious that the bilateral trade started late with low total amount and imbalanced structure. Goods exported to China are raw materials, primary commodity and semi-manufactured goods, while imported goods are machine manufacturing and mechanical and electrical products, which intensify economic nationalism within India. The trade protection, foreign investment review system andimmaturity of labor market prevent better economic and commercial cooperation between China and India. Nevertheless, the Sino-India partnership has strong complementarity and considerable potentials, especially on the cooperation on infrastructure construction and software outsourcing service.