一帶一路 | 走進印度之外交關係對投資的影響（上）

20世紀90年代以來，印度逐漸走上自由市場經濟之路，大力推進以市場化、私有化和全球化為取向的經濟改革。在此背景下，印度加大吸引外資力度，希望通過引進外資促進經濟增長，提升印度在全球經濟中的競爭力。然而，時至今日，印度國內的投資環境仍然不容樂觀。世界銀行《2015年營商環境報告》顯示，印度的營商環境在全球189個國家和地區中排名第142位。在政治風險角度看，我國對印投資主要存在以下方面的挑戰。

Since 1990s, India has set steps on free market economy, to promote economic reforms aiming at marketization, privatization and globalization. Under this circumstance, India puts efforts on foreign investment absorbing, to raise its competitiveness in global economy.Yet till now, the investment environment is still not optimistic. According to the World’s Bank Doing Business of 2015, the doing-business environment of India ranked 142thamong the 189 countries. On the other hand, from the perspective of political risks, challenges of the China’s investment on India are as followed.

第一，印度政治和社會治理不容樂觀。

Firstly, the governance of Indian politics and society is not optimistic.

在政治層面，印度政府對外商投資設置了較高門檻，審批程式複雜，行政效率低下。印度保護外資的法律體系並不健全，一旦出現商業糾紛難以找到合理的維權管道。印度國內官員腐敗猖獗，尋租現象比比皆是，賄賂成為了印度人的生活方式。據印度官方公佈的一份有關“行賄成本”的報告，印度每個城市家族一年大約花4400盧比（約合人民幣429元）用於行賄，而農村家庭的數位約為2900盧比（約合人民幣283元）。在社會層面，印度基礎設施落後，交通運輸管理混亂，電力嚴重短缺，大大增加了外國投資的成本。此外，印度部分地區社會治安較差，尤其西北、東北和東部地區為甚，犯罪率頗高。更值得關注的是，婦女在印度的社會地位較低，公共場所性侵、強暴事件時有發生，而政府對一系列事件的處理遠不盡人意。這些都構成了外商投資印度的潛在政治風險。

Indian government has set comparatively high threshold for foreign investments with complicated approval procedures and low administrative efficiency. The law system that protects foreign investment still lacks completion; therefore, reasonable right defending methods are hard to access once a commercial dispute appears. Corruption is often seen in Indian government, and so is the renting phenomenon. Bribing has become a common lifestyle of Indian people.An official government report about bribing cost says that every family in urban area would use 4400 rupees (429 Yuan) on bribing while the rural one would use 2900 (283 Yuan) on the same aspect.On the other hand, for social issues, lacks of proper infrastructure, snarling traffic, and electricity shortage considerately increase cost of foreign investment.Besides, the public security is another concern, especially that of the northwest, northeast and east of India, with rather high rate of crime. What is more worried is the social status of women in India. With the frequent appearance of public sexual aggression and raping, the government has contributed far less than expected. These factors all formed the potential political risks.

第二，印度的宗教差異經常引發教派衝突。

Secondly, the religious diversity often causes communal conflict.

正如前文所言，印度是各類宗教的彙聚之地，伊斯蘭教、印度教、基督教、佛教、猶太教等宗教在印度都擁有大量信眾。宗教信仰的差異導致教派衝突頻頻發生，尤以伊斯蘭教和印度教之間的衝突為甚。在印度，印度教徒人口占82%，而穆斯林信眾約占12%。印度教長期敵視穆斯林，聲稱要“趕走穆斯林”，摧毀穆斯林廟宇、屠殺穆斯林信眾。1992年，極端印度教徒拆毀了巴布裡清真寺，隨即在全國引發大規模暴力衝突，一周之內就有1097人喪生、4085人受傷。2002年，印度的穆斯林信眾縱火燒死58名印度教徒，教派衝突再次上演。2012年，印度東北部的阿薩姆邦先後4名當地穆斯林遭到殺害，引發了當地穆斯林和印度教徒之間的血腥衝突，造成數十人死亡、四百多個村莊化為灰燼的悲劇。可以說，宗教衝突如揮之不出的夢魘，成為影響印度社會穩定的最重要因素之一，因而也構成外國赴印投資的重大風險因素。

As stated in former context, India is a mixture of several types of religion. Islam, Hindu, Christianity, Buddhism, Judaism, they all have great number of followers. Diversity of religious belief often causes communal conflict, especially between Islam and Hindu. In India, Hindus take up for 82% of the population while Muslims for 12%. Hindus are hostile towards Muslim for long time, claiming that “chase Muslim away”, tearing down Muslim temples, and butchering Muslims.In 1992, extremists of Hindu tore down the Babri Masjid, which has led a large scale of violence conflict throughout the whole nation.Within one week, 1097 died and 4085 injured. In 2002, Muslims in India set fire to kill 58 Hindus and led the conflict to reoccur. In 2012, in the northeast state, Assam, 4 local Muslims were killed, which brought the bloody conflict on stage between Muslims and Hindus, causing tens of death and over 400 villages burning down. Religious conflict keeps haunting India’s society. This is one of the most important factors affecting India’s social stability, so also the risk element concerned by foreign investors.