一帶一路 | 走進印度之外交關係對投資的影響（下）

Thirdly, terrorism and separatismstrongly affect the security of nation.

印度深受恐怖主义和分离主义之苦，从印度东北部到印控克什米尔地区数十年来一直充斥着各种极端暴力活动。英国殖民者分而治之的策略、复杂的民族和宗教矛盾，以及经济社会发展的严重失衡，造成了印度恐怖主义和分离主义的泛滥。在位于悉尼的国际智库“经济与和平研究所”发布的2014年全球恐怖主义指数排名中，印度在全球162个国家中位列第六，仅次于伊拉克、阿富汗、巴基斯坦、尼亚利亚和叙利亚。“从2012年到2013年，印度的恐怖主义活动上升了70%，死亡人数从238人上升至404人。”为消除恐怖主义和分离主义威胁，印度政府一方面采取多种军事措施予以打击，另一方面也启动与反政府武装的和平谈判进程。然而，印度国内的安全形势仍然严峻，增加了外国投资的政治风险。

India has long suffered from terrorism and separatism. Extreme violence has filled the region covering from northeast of India to Indian Kashmir. Divide-and-rule policy of British colonists, complex nationality, religious conflicts and severe imbalance of economic and social development have all resulted the rampancy of Indian terrorism and separatism. Institute for Economics and Peace, the international think tank headquarterof which lies in Sydney, issued the ranking of global terrorism ratio, and India ranked 6th in the list of 162 countries, right after Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Syria. “From 2012 to 2013, terrorism in India increased 70%, causing death from 238 to 404.”To diminish the threat of terrorism and separatism, India government carried out military strikes on the one hand; on the other hand, it initiated peace negotiation with anti-government armed forces. However, the insecurity of India increases the political risks for foreign investment.

第四，中印关系中的负面因素不可低估。

Fourthly, the negative factors cannot be unseen in Sino-Indian relations.

尽管当下中印友好合作是主流，但是两国关系中一些潜在的负面因素不时浮现，势必对中国企业在印投资造成影响。中印边界争端始终悬而未决，1962年双方因边界冲突爆发战争，近年来还发生了中印帐篷对峙事件。莫迪访华期间中印两国达成的联合声明明确指出，边境地区的和平与安宁是双边关系发展和持续增长的重要保障。不过，边界问题短期内仍然难以解决，甚至不能排除擦枪走火的可能。西藏问题也是中印关系中的隐忧，印度对藏独势力的支持由来已久，其目标是希望将西藏制造为中印之间的“战略缓冲”。尽管印度官方宣称西藏是中华人民共和国领土的一部分，但印度在西藏问题上或明或暗的动作仍在持续。此外，中印双方在心理层面存有芥蒂。1962年的战争失利成为印度社会挥之不去的阴影，不时映射到对中国的评价上来。再加之中印两国实力差距的拉大，“中国威胁论”在印度国内甚嚣尘上，对中国的负面评价经常见诸报端。再者，国际第三方因素也是干扰中印关系发展的变量。在中国看来，美日等西方国家对印度的拉拢旨在加强对中国的战略遏制。反过来，中国与巴基斯坦之间的“全天候”友好关系也被印度视为安全威胁，并进行过度炒作。以上因素成为中印关系持续健康发展的重要障碍，也为中国赴印投资平添了不少变数。

Though cooperation is mainstream, potential negative factors sometimes rise and would cause influences on Chinese investment in India. Border issue is still not settled, due to which war broke out in 1962 and Tent Confrontation happened in recent year. The joint declaration of India and China reached during the time Modi visited China clarifies that the peace of border region guarantees the development and advancement of bilateral relations. Yet the border issue is not a short-term problem to be solved, and even the possibility of military conflicts still exists. Also, the Tibet problem sticks between two countries. India supports Tibet independence for long, to create a strategic buffer against China. Although India officially claims that Tibet is part of the People’s Republic of China, it plays tricks on this issue.Besides, psychological obstacles are also an issue for bilateral relations. War failure in 1962 has cast shadow on Indian society, which would reflect on values of China. The theory of Chinese Threat has been causing negative judgment on China due to the strength gap. The third party of the world is another variable to affect Sino-Indian relation. From China’s point of view, the friendliness of U.S. and Japan towards India shows the enhancement on the containment strategy against China; while for India, the friendship between China and Pakistan is regarded as national security threat.Factors above are main obstacles preventing a successive and healthy relationship to form, and create many variables for Chinese investment on India.