一帶一路 | 為何全球投資者如此看好印度？（二）

儘管面臨這些挑戰，以下3大增長動力可能讓印度繼續成為最受青睞的新興市場：

Despite of confronting these challenges, the following three major growth impetus could make India continue to be one of the most popular emerging markets:

即將召開第七屆薪酬委員會會議

The seventh session of the compensation committee meeting is coming

印度政府每10年就要針對印度中央政府雇員和退休者修訂一次薪資和養老金，估計涉及 750-800 萬人。今年將召開第七屆薪酬委員會會議，提議的薪資修訂將在明年年初實現。

The Indian government revises the relevant law every 10 years pertaining to the salaries and pension of India’s central government employees and retirees, which might involve around 750-8 million people. This year the government will hold the seventh compensation committee meeting. The proposed salary revision will be implemented at the beginning of next year.

花旗指出，委員會的提案可能讓印度人消費增長在2017財年從2015財年的6.3%提升至8.4%。提案還將帶來所需的財政刺激，花旗預計財政收入支出占GDP比重2017財年將提升0.4個百分點至0.6個百分點。

According to Citigroup, the committee’s proposals could make consumption growth rate in India grow from 6.3% in fiscal year of 2015 to 8.4% in fiscal year of 2017. Proposal will also bring the fiscal stimulus. Citigroup predicted that the fiscal revenue spending as a share of GDP will increase from 0.4 percentage points to 0.6 percentage points in fiscal year of 2017.

結構性改革

Structural reforms

投資者抱怨莫迪總理在改善營商環境的重要改革上面止步不前，比如最近莫迪政府決定推遲一項旨在便利政府獲取土地的計畫。其他議程的改革還包括商品和服務稅、勞動法修訂。但龐大的改革議程將最終給印度帶來好處而不是相反。

Investors complain that Prime Minister Mr. Modi came to a halt in improving the business environment. For example, Modi government had recently decided to postpone a plan which aims to facilitate the government to obtain the land. The other agenda also includes the revision of law, concerning goods and services, tax and labor law. However the huge reform will ultimately bring benefit to India rather than damage.

麥樸思表示：“就政策困境而言，我們都希望看到各項改革立即得到實施，但如果莫迪能夠完成計畫的20%，那也不得了。”

Mark Mobius said: “In terms of policy dilemmas, all of us would like to see the reform that could be implemented immediately. If Modi could complete 20% of the plan, it will be also great.”

貨幣政策支撐

Monetary Policy Support

資料顯示 7 月份印度 CPI 降至 3.78%的歷史新低，讓印度央行有充裕的空間放鬆貨幣政策和緩衝經濟減速。上週五印度央行行長Raghuram Raja曾表示不排除第四次降息。

According to relevant data, India’s CPI fell to 3.78% in July, which created a record. This made India’s central bank have ample space to relax the monetary policy and buffer the economic slowdown. Last Friday India’s central bank governor Raghuram Raja said that it’s possible to cut interest rates for the fourth time.

麥樸思指出：“這在印度最近的歷史上是沒有先例的。過去印度央行一直在加息對抗通脹，現在他們在降息。隨著利率下降，股市和經濟將會受益。” 此外，由於印度是能源淨進口國，油價下跌也強化了持續低通脹的預期。

Mark Mobius pointed out: “There is no precedent in India’s recent history. In the past the central bank of India has been raising interest rates to fight inflation, now they are cutting them down. As the interest rates are declining, stock market and the economy will benefit from it.” In addition, as India is a net importer of energy, a drop in oil prices strengthened the sustained low inflation expectations.