一帶一路 | 為何全球投資者如此看好印度？

作為亞洲第三大經濟體，印度是新興市場一顆閃耀的明星，儘管最近經濟增速有所放緩，但經濟學家相信印度經濟內生動力強勁，未來幾年增速將超過8%。

As Asia’s third-largest economy, India is a shining star of the emerging markets. Although the recent economic growth has slowed, economists believe that India’s economy is strong due to the internal motivation and the economic growth rate in the next few years will be more than 8%.

受淨出口下降拖累，2季度印度GDP增速從1季度的 7.5%降至7%。

Because of the net exports felling down, in the second quarter, the GDP growth fell to 7% from 7.5% in the 1 quarter.

花旗(Citi)經濟學家Anurag Jha表示：“儘管標題數位低於預期，內部構成顯示消費和投資需求改善，印證了我們關亍印度經濟正在逐步復興的觀點。”

Citigroup economist Anurag (Citi) Jha said: “although the headline Numbers is not reaching our expectation, the internal composition shows that the demand for consumption and investment improved, which confirms our view that India’s economy is gradually revival.”

花旗和摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)均預計印度經濟 2016 財年將增長7.5%，下一財年增長8.1%。印度2014-2015財年增速為 7.3%。

Citigroup and Morgan Stanley (Morgan Stanley) both predicted that India’s economy growth rate will grow 7.5% in fiscal year of 2016, and this number will grow to 8.1% next year. India’s economy growth rate was 7.3% in fiscal year of 2014-2015.

“新興市場教父”、鄧普頓新興市場團隊執行主席麥朴思(Mark Mobius)也對印度表示樂觀：“未來幾月 GDP 將會逐步走高。印度可能將實現5-8年前的經濟增速。”

“The Godfather of emerging markets”, namely the executive chairman of Templeton emerging markets team Mark Mobius expressed his optimistic views towards India: “In the next few months the GDP rate will gradually move higher. India could achieve as the same economic growth rate as that in 5-8 years ago.”

不過，澳新銀行(ANZ)經濟學家認為印度最新的 GDP 資料需要謹慎對待，因為早些時候印度政府對GDP核算方法做出了重大變更，改為根據市場價格而非生產成本來計算經濟活力。

However, ANZ bank economist thinks that India’s latest GDP data needs to be treated with caution because in earlier years, Indian government has made a major change to GDP accounting method, which is making the GDP and the economic vitality to be calculated according to the market price instead of the cost of production.

此外，印度國有銀行的壞賬問題也令人擔憂。截止 3 月底，壞賬總額創出490億美元的10年新高，占總貸款的 4.6%。

In addition, People are worrying about India’s state-owned Banks’ bad debts. Until the end of March, the total amount of bad debt hit a decade record of $49 billion accounting for 4.6% of the total loan.